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๐ก๐ผ๐บ๐๐ฟ๐ฎโ๐ ๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐๐ถ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐
Nomuraโs leading index of Asia ex-Japanโs aggregate exports, or NELI for short, is made up of nine forward-looking components and has a three-month lead time. NELI has correctly warned of past major turning points and is less distorted by base effects than official export data, making it a useful leading indicator of Asiaโs underlying export growth.
Following a slight dip in June-July, NELI rebounded to 82.6 in August, back to around its level in May; this adds conviction to our view that Asia ex-Japanโs export growth is bottoming out. NELIโs rise is driven primarily by timely indicators of the global tech cycle, along with improvements in China and broader EM PMIs.
We expect a gradual recovery in Asiaโs exports, driven by a chip cycle upturn, a policy stimulus-supported increase in China imports and stronger intra-Asia trade. Our tech analysts forecast a continued pick-up in global semiconductor sales, while our China economics team expects import growth to turn positive from Q4 onwards (4.2% y-o-y in Q4 versus -2.7% in Q3). However, Asiaโs export recovery is likely to be slow and bumpy, owing to weakening demand from the West, including a delayed US recession and the rising risk of a deepening economic downturn in Europe .
๐๐ป๐ป๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐ฎ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐น'๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ
Despite a recent slowdown in Brazil's services sector, investors maintain an optimistic outlook on its long-term potential. In the first quarter, the sector's growth decelerated for the third consecutive quarter, reaching 2.9% year-on-year. However, alternative data from the State System of Data Analysis (SEADE), which compiles investment announcements from over 40 online newspapers in Sao Paulo, reveals that investments in the services sector have reached a record high of 26.9 billion BRL as of June, covering the past 12 months.
๐จ.๐ฆ. ๐๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ & ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฑ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ถ๐น ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฅ๐ถ๐๐ฒ
Gasoline prices continue to increase.
Crude oil prices improve to highest level since late-April.
Natural gas prices are little changed.
๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ฎโ๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐, ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ ๐ถ๐บ๐ฝ๐๐น๐๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ป๐ณ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป
Series 2: N924PY@EMERGEPR ย N924PY@EMERGEPRย ย [China: Producer Prices: All Industry Products (NSA, yr/yr % chg)]
Series 3: N924CISF@EMERGEP ย N924CISF@EMERGEPRย ย [China: Credit Impulse Based on Monthly Social Financing Flows (NSA, 12M % Chg)]
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ก๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ โ ๐๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐น ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐
