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Global phenol capacities
China is increasing phenol capacities by ~30%
Do not count on massive easing
"We expect China’s macro policy stance to ease in coming months, although the magnitude should be smaller than in previous easing cycles"
There is a growing divide between optimism on Main Street and optimism on Wall Street.
Despite being closely aligned for the last 4 years, recent trends show that retail investors are currently much more positive than institutional investors.
Global cyclicals are overextended relative to global defensives.
Breadth has materially improved, but mega-cap Growth has continued to lead. However, sentiment may be nearing an extreme.
The combined market cap of eight tech-related stocks has surpassed the combined market cap of Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Real Estate.
Global Economic Outlook Monthly
The rate hiking cycle is likely near its end
While we forecast final rate hikes by the Fed and ECB, we see a risk of further hikes. Asian central banks may soon decouple from the Fed by cutting rates.